基于博弈论的装备科研、购置、维修经费比例关系优化分析

通过不同时期国家战略部署、科研发展情况及经济承受能力对装备经费分配的影响分析,采用博弈的方法,建立了装备科研、购置和维修费之间的比例关系优化模型,给出了寻求纳什均衡点的迭代算法,并进行了仿真计算.仿真结果证明了该方法的可行性与正确性.     

New inequalities for finite and infinite group problems from approximate lifting

In this paper, we derive new families of facet‐defining inequalities for the finite group problem and extreme inequalities for the infinite group problem using approximate lifting. The new valid inequalities for the finite group problem include two‐ and three‐slope facet‐defining inequalities as well as the first family of four‐slope facet‐defining inequalities. The new valid inequalities for the infinite group problem include families of two‐ and three‐slope extreme inequalities. These new inequalities not only illustrate the diversity of strong inequalities for the finite and infinite group problems, but also provide a large variety of new cutting planes for solving integer and mixed‐integer programming problems. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

可靠性强化试验与加速寿命试验综述

介绍可靠性强化试验与加速寿命试验的基本概念 ,并进一步综述强化试验与加速寿命试验的国内外研究现状 ,最后对强化试验与加速寿命试验领域可能的研究方向进行归纳总结。     

Mean residual life of coherent systems consisting of multiple types of dependent components

Mean residual life is a useful dynamic characteristic to study reliability of a system. It has been widely considered in the literature not only for single unit systems but also for coherent systems. This article is concerned with the study of mean residual life for a coherent system that consists of multiple types of dependent components. In particular, the survival signature based generalized mixture representation is obtained for the survival function of a coherent system and it is used to evaluate the mean residual life function. Furthermore, two mean residual life functions under different conditional events on components’ lifetimes are also defined and studied.     

关于ADC法评估C~4ISR系统效能中的可靠性

针对运用ADC法评估防空C4ISR系统效能中,可靠性是影响系统效能的重要因素,对C4ISR系统的可靠性进行研究,重点分析了软件及通信网可靠性的估算公式,并在此基础上建立可用性A和可信性D数学模型.最后,通过实例分析证明了可靠性对系统效能评估的重要影响.     

存在工作历程产品的加速寿命试验统计分析

加速寿命试验(ALT)可在较短时间内获得产品的寿命及可靠性信息.利用ALT对产品的剩余寿命进行评估时,常常将已工作过的产品进行抽样并投入试验,在这一类样本的ALT数据统计分析时如何处理初始工作时间,成为ALT应用中的一个重要问题.工程实际中评估此类样本的剩余寿命时常常忽略初始工作时间,将其视为"用后如新"或"无记忆性"产品.但此假设必须以产品寿命服从指数分布为前提,而大部分机电产品的寿命服从Weibull分布,因而该方法在应用时必然会产生较大误差.针对这一问题提出了一种新的基于时间折算的ALT数据统计分析方法,并利用Monte Carlo仿真对其估计特性进行对比研究,结果表明此方法能有效评估存在初始工作历程产品的剩余寿命,估计精度优于原方法.     

Application of Markov renewal theory and semi-Markov decision processes in maintenance modeling and optimization of multi-unit systems

In this paper, a condition-based maintenance model for a multi-unit production system is proposed and analyzed using Markov renewal theory. The units of the system are subject to gradual deterioration, and the gradual deterioration process of each unit is described by a three-state continuous time homogeneous Markov chain with two working states and a failure state. The production rate of the system is influenced by the deterioration process and the demand is constant. The states of the units are observable through regular inspections and the decision to perform maintenance depends on the number of units in each state. The objective is to obtain the steady-state characteristics and the formula for the long-run average cost for the controlled system. The optimal policy is obtained using a dynamic programming algorithm. The result is validated using a semi-Markov decision process formulation and the policy iteration algorithm. Moreover, an analytical expression is obtained for the calculation of the mean time to initiate maintenance using the first passage time theory.     

横向效应增强型弹垂直侵彻薄靶的轴向剩余速度理论分析

为了得到横向效应增强型弹（Penetration with Enhanced Lateral Efficiency projectile, PELE）对金属薄靶垂直侵彻后的弹体轴向剩余速度，运用平面冲击波理论，对PELE的侵彻机理进行分析。参照平头弹体对靶板的侵彻模型，将PELE侵彻过程中的能量损失划分为以下几个部分：外壳体和内芯撞靶区域对应的环形塞块获得的能量、冲击波作用下弹体的内能增量以及剪切耗能等。然后根据能量守恒原理，得到PELE垂直侵彻金属薄靶后的PELE弹体轴向剩余速度的理论模型。为了验证该模型的合理性和准确性，设计相应的试验进行验证。结果表明，不同条件下得到的试验结果和理论模型得到的计算结果均吻合得较好。因此，得到的PELE垂直侵彻薄靶的轴向剩余速度理论模型可为工程应用提供指导和参考。     

基于排队论的反舰导弹突防概率研究

根据水面舰艇对海导弹攻击中作战指挥的需要,提出了基于排队论中随机服务理论的反舰导弹突防概率解算模型.综合研究了目标舰艇编队采用各种手段进行抗击帮助条件下,反舰导弹突防概率的计算问题,并且结合想定装备参数进行了算例分析.为指挥员实施导弹攻击提供辅助决策和量化支持.     

试论机枪任务可靠性指标的确定方法

从实战需要出发,结合我国目前机枪的研制水平,本文应用可靠性基本原理,论述了机枪的任务可靠性参数及其指标的确定方法。